1. Introduction
Is Vanuatu a Country? Where is it Located?
I find many people unaware of a group of tiny paradise islands in the vastness of the Pacific Ocean. Vanuatu is a Y-shaped archipelago country with 83 small islands in the South Pacific Ocean. It lies between latitude 13 degrees south to 21 degrees south and longitudes 166 degrees east to 171 degrees east. The country is located east of northern Australia, northeast New Caledonia, Southeast of the Solomon Islands, and West of Fiji. Since 1880, the country was jointly colonized by the French and British as New Hebrides. In 1980, the country got its independence after 10 years long independence movement. The country has a total population of 301,695 with a total land area of 12,189 sq km. The population density is about 19.7 persons per sq km. The estimated GDP in 2018 was $820 million, with a per capita of $2,850 [1],[2].
Vanuatu Location Map (Source Google Map) |
Vanuatu has a tropical climate with nine months of hot, humid, and rainy weather and three to four months of cooler, drier weather. The daily temperature ranges from 20–32 °C. Vanuatu receives rainfall almost every month. November to April is considered the wettest month, while May to October is the driest. The average rainfall is about 2,360 millimetres, with exceptions that can go as high as 4,000 millimetres.
Vanuatu is geographically located in the so-called ‘Ring of Fire’ and the ‘Cyclone Belt’ area of the South Pacific. Therefore, the county is susceptible to both hydrometeorological and geophysical disasters. The country regularly experiences tropical cyclones, volcanos, earthquakes, floods, and drought. According to the World Risk Report 2021, out of 15 countries, 10 island states are ranked with the highest disaster risk[3]. Oceania has the highest disaster risk among all the continents, mainly due to increased exposure to extreme natural hazards. The top three countries with the highest disaster risk worldwide are Vanuatu, with a WRI of 47.73, followed by the Solomon Islands, with a WRI of 31.16, and Tonga, with a WRI of 30.51; these are all Pacific island countries. Almost 81% of its landmass and 76% of its population are vulnerable to two or more hazards[4].
The economic loss of the potential disaster is an increasing trend. The country is suffering financial losses of $48 million annually due to multiple disasters such as cyclones, floods, and earthquakes. There is a 50% probability of Vanuatu suffering economic loss exceeding $330 million a year and a 10% probability of losses exceeding $ 540 million a year[5].
Unmanaged growth of urban centres and subsequent peri-urban settlements contribute to increased vulnerability levels. The potential for devastating cyclones and earthquakes in fast-growing urban areas, such as Port Vila, Luganville, and Lenakel, highlights the need for a coordinated approach to managing the risks of natural hazards, which can quickly turn into a disaster if otherwise.
Objectives of this Study
• To understand the major types of hazards, disaster risk, and vulnerability in Vanuatu
• To understand the factors increasing risks and vulnerability
• To understand the strategies used to mitigate disasters and increase resilience
• To investigate the efficacy of mitigation approaches
2. Hazards, Exposure and Vulnerability
Major Hazards and Levels of Exposure
According to the World Risk Report 2021, Vanuatu is ranked as the most hazardous country in the world based on its high exposure to hazards and weak coping capacity. Major hazards in Vanuatu are tropical cyclones, floods, storm surges, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. As per the EM-DAT, for the past 100 years, tropical cyclones have been the most frequent disaster Vanuatu has experienced, followed by volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. According to the source, tropical cyclones have been the most frequent disaster event in the past 100 years, making up 58% of total disasters, followed by volcanic eruptions (16%) and earthquakes (14%). Other disasters were riverine floods (4%), viral diseases (4%), landslides (%) and tsunamis(2%). See Figure 1 below.
Figure 1: Frequency of Disasters in Vanuatu (1940-2021)[6]
Tropical Cyclones
The location of Vanuatu, south of the equator, is known for the frequent occurrence of tropical cyclones bringing damaging wind, rain, and storm surges every year between November and April. Vanuatu has experienced devastating cyclones in the last few decades. There were about 20 damaging tropical cyclones since 1990. From 2001 until now, there have been destructive tropical cyclones, each affecting 50,000 people and causing losses of 100 million dollars on average. Tropical Cyclone Pam (2015) and Harold (2020) were two recent Category 5 cyclones that each affected 135,000 people and losses of 286 million dollars on average. Floods and storm surges are the cascading effect of cyclones and are widely experienced in Vanuatu. Various studies conducted in the region suggest that climate change is causing a reduction in the frequency of cyclones; however, the intensity is getting higher. The estimated reduction of frequency ranges from 15% to 35% in Cyclone formation within the region of Vanuatu by the end of the century; however, the maximum wind speeds could increase by 2% to 11%. More damage is expected with the increase in the intensity of the cyclones, with the potential increase of rainfall around 20% within 100 km of the eye of the cyclone [7].
Figure 2 below shows the tropical cyclone track density of storms. The historical data suggests that the frequency of cyclones in the region is very high. The track density is higher on the western side of the islands than on the eastern part.
Figure 2: Cyclone track Density (Weighted with the wind speed)[8]
Earthquakes
The country is situated at a section of the so-called Pacific Ring of Fire, exposing it to seismic activities. The country follows the boundary of the Australian tectonic plate and the Pacific plate, where the Pacific plate is slowly moving under the Australian plane. The process is known as subduction (see Figure 3). The subduction can generate large earthquakes and further Tsunamis. According to EM-DAT, there was a total of 7 earthquakes recorded with a magnitude of more than 7 on the Richter scale in the past couple of decades. In 1999, a magnitude 7.5 earthquake hit the island of Pentecost, causing 12 lives and 14,100 people affected. The same earthquake-generated 6m high tsunami destroyed the village of Baie Martelli. In 2002, another 7.3 magnitude earthquake hit Port Vila, the capital city of Vanuatu, with heavy damage to buildings and other infrastructure. According to Pacific Community Data, Vanuatu has a 40% chance of experiencing powerful and severe earthquakes at least once in the next 50 years, which may damage even well-engineered infrastructures [5]. Landslides and Tsunamis are other cascading effects of the earthquake and are also experienced in Vanuatu.
Volcanic Ashfall
The islands of Vanuatu primarily originated from volcanos. There are 16 volcanos, of which 6 are active, and the remainder are dormant. Since 1995, ten major volcanic eruptions have been recorded, which are either alert level 3 or greater. This eruption has resulted in substantial changes to land formations and subsequent migration. The migration includes both within and beyond islands. On average, each of these eruptions affected about 6,000 population[5]. The most recent eruptions are Monaro Vui (Ambae) in 2017, 2005, and 1995; Yasur Volcano (Tanna) in 2016 and 1998; Marum (Ambrym) in 2015 and 2009; and Gaua in 2010 and 2009. Manaro Vui is one of the most active among the six and is also ranked the most active volcano worldwide. The Volcano is situated on the Ambae island, inhabited by 12,000 people.
Ambae Island Volcanic Ashfall in 2017- Source: Twitter @specificisland |
Vulnerability and Risk
Vulnerability is a physical, social, economic, and environmental condition susceptible to hazards. It determines the susceptibility of a community to the impact of a hazard. In other words, vulnerability is being prone to damage, injury, or loss of life. The societal costs of disasters worldwide continue to increase, and Pacific Island countries are considered one of the most vulnerable. This is primarily due to a combination of high-hazard exposure coupled with a range of social, economic, physical, and political vulnerabilities[11].
Physical Vulnerability
Population- According to the latest national census, the population of Vanuatu is 301,695, with 78 per cent of residents living in rural areas spread across 80 islands in six provinces[1]. Port Vila and Luganville are the two main urban centres in the country and are close to the coast. As presented on the population heat map below (figure 4), most people live near the sea, making them more vulnerable to tropical cyclones, floods, storm surges, and tsunamis. Limited disaster response capacity has compounded the vulnerability. The country's isolation and remoteness have even worsened the vulnerability [12].
Infrastructure - As shown in the above map, most infrastructure assets, such as roads, airports, seaports, schools, and hospitals, are built where the population lives. Since most people are near the coasts, the physical assets are to be built near the coasts. Most of the population lives in very basic houses. Traditional materials such as timber, bamboo, and Natangora leaves are widely used for housing nationwide. Only 17% of households report living in houses with permanent walls made of solid materials[1]. Living conditions are different across Vanuatu and are based on locations with access to infrastructure and utilities. The population outside urban areas mostly lacks electricity and often lacks piped water and sewage systems. Almost all households rely on wood or coconut shells for cooking. In the more urbanized parts of the country, houses have concrete or wood floors. Low-quality housing and other critical infrastructures are vulnerable to natural hazards. TC Pam put 65% of households displaced in affected areas.
Socio-Economic Vulnerability
Economy -The country's total GDP is about $800 million, out of which agriculture (copra, kava, cocoa, and timber) contributes 20.6%, industry (processed meat and fish, and wood processing) 11.7%, and services primarily tourism contributes 67.6%. The smallness of the islands and geographical remoteness have always been the main factors of economic difficulties for the rural economy[1]. The human development index of Vanuatu is measured at 0.6, showing the medium human development in terms of income, life span, and education level. The country ranks 141st out of 189 countries[13]. The Gini coefficient is found to be 0.351 countries, showing relative equality[14]. However, the Gini coefficient is higher (>0.38) in urban areas such as Port Vila, indicating higher levels of inequality in urban centres.
Poverty and Low Income -The poverty level measured by % of the population below Vanuatu's total poverty line is 12.3%[2]. However, there are certain areas where the poverty rates are substantially higher than the national average. Urban areas such as Port Vila have high poverty incidence and a high proportion of the nation’s poor. Poor and marginalized people are disproportionally exposed to natural hazards and are more vulnerable.
Agriculture - Subsistence agriculture is the primary source of livelihood in the country and is very susceptible to natural hazards such as cyclones, ashfall, and floods. Climate change, with the increased frequency of extreme weather, is expected to impact the sector adversely.
Tourism – Vanuatu’s backbone of the economy, the service sector, is dominated by nature and coastal-based tourism and is highly vulnerable to natural hazards. For example, in 2015, Tropical Cyclone Pam caused significant economic harm to the tourism sector, primarily through damaging accommodation and tour services.
Education- The literacy rate is 64% across Vanuatu and is low compared to other countries. The educational attainment varies considerably across the country. The islands of Torba province, along with Tanna and the western side of Santo, report high proportions (>50%) of adults without any schooling[1]. The disparity is due to geography and inaccessibility. It is also a fact that more educated people move to the urban centres. Across the Pacific, natural hazards can disrupt education with long-term consequences for young people. The natural hazards can damage schools, disrupting education for an extended period.
Environmental Vulnerability
Pacific Islands, including Vanuatu, are increasingly facing severe climate impacts, including rising sea levels, changing temperatures, and rainfall patterns. These impacts result in food and water security changes, loss of identity, climate-induced migration, and threats to sovereignty[15]. The islands’ ecosystems are degraded by pollution, overfishing, and unsustainable development, making them more susceptible to climate change-related vulnerability.
3. Findings and Discussions on Mitigation Approaches
Prevention or stopping a hazard from becoming a disaster is not always possible. The occurrence and location of the earthquake, for example, cannot be predicted, and therefore, we cannot prevent the potential disaster. An island system like Vanuatu has its peculiarities. As a prevention, there is no significant difference in moving settlement from point A to point B on the islands as the hazards, such as tropical cyclones, are too large in scale compared to the size of the islands. Therefore, it is logical to focus on mitigation where prevention is impossible.
Mitigation is one of the approaches to disaster risk management. It is a sustained action reducing or eliminating long-term risk to people and assets from natural hazards and their effects. Mitigation embraces all measures taken to minimise the effect of hazard and vulnerability, reducing the scale of potential disaster. Mitigation measures can be divided into two broader groups viz. Structural and non-structural measures. All physical construction to reduce or avoid possible impacts of hazards or the application of engineering techniques or technology to achieve hazard resilience is known as structural measures. Non-structural measures are soft measures such as knowledge, practice, and understanding to reduce disasters through appropriate laws, policies, plans, awareness, and training. Structural and non-structural measures shall apply together as complementary to each other, which results in effective and efficient mitigation of possible disasters.
The following paragraphs will focus on Vanuatu’s ongoing effort at the national, provincial, and individual levels to lessen the impact of disasters upon people and assets.
Non-Structural Measures
National Disaster Management Framework
Vanuatu has a national disaster management framework that sets a path for effective and efficient disaster management within the country. It aligns with sustainable development goals, the Sendai Framework, and the Paris Agreement at the international level and with regional frameworks such as the Framework for Resilient Development in the Pacific. A set of laws, legislation and strategic plans are in place per the set framework. See Figure 5.
Laws and Legislations
The National Disaster Act [16] provides the legal basis and framework for disaster management in Vanuatu. The legislation establishes the National Disaster Committee and the National Disaster Management Office (NDMO). It provides mechanisms for emergency funding and powers the above bodies to undertake and coordinate disaster response. The NDMO is the government department responsible for coordinating disaster response. The Meteorology, Geological Hazards, and Climate Change Act [17] of 2016 sets out the framework for forecasting hazards. It established the National Advisory Board for Disaster Risk Reduction. It advises developing strategies and policies for disaster preparedness and risk reduction.
Figure 5: Vanuatu National Disaster Management Framework[18]
National Sustainable Development Plan
The National Sustainable Development Plan- NSDP [19] sits at the top of the planning hierarchy within the country. Under the environment pillar, climate and disaster resilience is one of the NSDP goals, which expects a strong and resilient nation in the face of climate change & risks posed by hazards and natural disasters.
Climate Change and Disaster Risk Reduction Policy
Under the NSDP, Vanuatu has a Climate change and disaster risk reduction policy. The policy’s core is the community's resilience with the six strategic priority areas: governance, finance, knowledge management, Disaster risk reduction & climate change adaptation, low carbon development, and response & recovery. The structure of the Vanuatu Climate Change And Disaster Risk Reduction Policy is exhibited in Figure 6.
The Ministry of Climate Change and Adaptation (MoCCA) is responsible for disaster management. The primary mission of MoCCA is to Develop sound policies & legislative frameworks and provide timely, reliable scientific information for service delivery to enable resilient communities, a sustainable environment, and economic development.
National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) develops national plans and procedures, including the National Emergency Operation Centre, Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), and the Tsunami Response Plan. The Cyclone Support Plan is reviewed annually before each cyclone season. The NDMO Department’s Strategic Plan[18] is a five-year plan (2016 to 2020) used to set priorities, focus energy and resources, and strengthen operations, ensuring that the staff and other stakeholders work toward common goals. The NDMO has prepared and streamlined a country preparedness package (CPP) and is intended to strengthen the preparedness and collaboration between national and international actors in disaster response[21]. The completed CPP is a set of documents outlining the existing national structures and the agreed plans for utilizing international support in disaster response. These documents are available online and include links to national reference documents.
Vanuatu Meteorology & Geohazard Department (VMGD)- Risk monitoring is principally conducted by the Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department (VMGD) within the Ministry of Climate Change, which is the principal scientific agency in the country for real-time risk monitoring. VMGD undertakes meteorological forecasting and seismic and volcanic monitoring. The VMGD works with the National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) on risk mapping and management. The forecasting and monitoring division of the VMGD has personnel working 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year. This includes continuous seismic, volcanic, and weather monitoring. Between November and April each year, Vanuatu Meteorology publishes the Tropical Cyclone Outlook twice daily at 6 a.m. and 6 p.m. This includes an update on the current situation and a forecast probability of tropical cyclone activity for the next five days. The VMGD has a network of tidal gauges to monitor tsunami events. It has continuous thermal and web camera observation of active volcanoes.
Public Works Department (PWD)-The Public Works Department (PWD) is responsible for the Ministry of Infrastructure and Public Utilities and leads the shelter cluster within the framework. The department establishes long-term strategic plans for resilient infrastructures and subsequent operational plans, standards, specifications, and best practices. Under the Building Act, the Vanuatu Building Code is in place and applies to all public and private buildings in urban areas. There are technical guidelines for shelter clusters to guide builders on cyclone-resistant houses. Likewise, PWD has a separate standard for building disaster-resilient roads and bridges; the standard gets continuous updates.
Structural Measures
Engineered Measures
Due to high exposure to frequent natural hazards, most of the country’s infrastructures are vulnerable. Non-structural measures, including appropriate by-laws, standards, and specifications, have laid the foundation for resilient infrastructure. While building public infrastructure, the government department is seriously taking account of disaster impact and taking appropriate actions to make the construction future-proof. The recently established Vanuatu Sustainable Public Roads Policy is an example. The policy clearly guides the department in designing and building a disaster-resilient road network[22]. Apart from government departments, multilateral and bilateral development partners are also helping Vanuatu build disaster-resilient infrastructure through their projects. World Bank is renovating several schools and health centres using resilient design and construction. The following two pictures of the Port Vila seafront show how Vanuatu is building back their public infrastructure better, making climate change and disaster resilient.
Nature Based Measures
Nature-based solutions are gaining popularity, and there is a growing awareness among climate scientists and professionals as they offer an alternative solution to protect vulnerable populations from disaster risk and climate change[23]. Measures such as mangroves and coral reefs can minimize exposure and vulnerability in coastal areas by protecting them from cyclone surges, tsunamis, floods and high tides[24]. However, the habitat loss of these green infrastructures will continue unless the protection and conservation of such systems are the government's strategic priorities. According to the State of Conservation in Vanuatu[25], the status of Coral reefs and Mangrove ecosystems are both deteriorating. Protected areas have been proven to be effective in preventing further deterioration. Therefore, about 45 sqm of coastal and marine areas in Vanuatu are currently covered by some form of protected area status [25]. Apart from that, community-conserved areas, such as marine-managed areas, also contribute to the preservation of the coastal ecosystem. Communities use traditional methods to protect such areas, declaring them Tabu sites. Several projects are ongoing to protect and conserve mangroves and coral reefs within the country. Mangrove Ecosystems for Climate Change Adaptation and Livelihoods (MESCAL) is a project under the Vanuatu Government’s national advisory board. One of the project's main objectives is to promote community-based actions on the ground in mangrove management for improved resilience to climate change[26]. On the other hand, the traditional knowledge and practices of building resilient infrastructure are also recognized. After TC Pam, it was widely accepted that the traditionally built low-rise houses with the wild cane and other local materials are proven to be cyclone resistant.
Efficacy of Mitigation Measures
Following the global trend, Vanuatu has started managing disasters using a risk management approach. However, there needs to be more information concerning the efficacy of disaster prevention and mitigation measures.
Data available on EM-DAT is used to evaluate the efficacy. The death, injury and economic losses were compared pre-2000, when disaster management was solely crisis management, versus post-2000, when the risk management approach started gaining momentum. A quick comparison of disaster-related deaths from the two periods shows a significant reduction in fatalities post-2000. Figure 7 below shows a 70% reduction in death from 1981 to 2000 against the period of 200 to 2020. The same trend was observed for the total injury, with an 85% reduction post-2000. Better preparedness and efficient early warning systems with the disaster reduction and mitigation approach could have contributed to this achievement.
A similar comparison was conducted for total loss due to multiple disasters during the same two periods (figure 8). Unlike no. of deaths and injuries, the total loss was found to be increased (about 110%) post-2000 than pre-2000. In 2015 alone, TC Pam contributed 71% of losses during the period. According to the Asia Pacific Disaster Report 2019, the total Annual Average Loss (AAL) is estimated at $166.96 million, which is 20.7% of the GDP of Vanuatu[27]. It was estimated 8.4%[28] of GDP in 2017. It shows a significant increase in annual average loss in 2019 than forecast estimates.
Figure 8 : Total Loss (m$) due to Multiple Disasters (pre and post 2000)[6]
These findings could indicate increased physical assets that are not disaster-resilient in later periods. It could also demonstrate inadequate preparedness and mitigation regarding implementing structural measures.
To further investigate the efficacy of structural and non-structural measures of disaster mitigation at the micro level, it is intended to present a couple of case studies as per below;
Case Study 1: Risk-informed Infrastructure Helps Strengthen Community Resilience
It’s a story about a market house in Luganville town in Vanuatu. The market house was built in 1977 and was in a vulnerable condition. Under AusAID funds and the UN Women’s Market for Change Program, it was rehabilitated in 2019 with the consideration of disaster-resilient design and construction. The renovation included a Category 5 cyclone-resistant roof, more durable flooring, and a new water drainage system to reduce the risk of flooding and damage during extreme weather events[29].
Cyclone Harold, with a wind speed of 270 kph, hit the town immediately after six months of the renovations; however, the market house sustained only minor roof damage while the Luganville Municipal Council office, which is situated a few blocks away, entirely collapsed. In the market house, due to robust infrastructure, many registered market vendors were able to start selling goods and produce within a week of the disaster. It shows how risk-informed design and construction of the infrastructure strengthens community resilience. Resilient infrastructure protects people during disasters and enables communities to recover quickly in the immediate aftermath of a crisis.
Case Study 2: Cyclone Pam and the Low Death Toll
Cyclone Pam was a category 5 cyclone with a wind speed of 270 kph that hit Vanuatu in 2015. It was considered the most intense tropical cyclone in the southern hemisphere and the second most intense TC ever in the South Pacific basin. Extensive damage was experienced in the capital city, Port Vila, and the islands of Erromango and Tanna. Despite its severity, only 11 deaths were recorded due to the cyclone while it hit the most populated parts of the country, including the capital city.
Research [30] tried to find the answer to this low death toll as an excellent lesson. According to their study, major factors affecting the low death toll are primarily related to disaster risk management, which includes effective warning, self-reliance and traditional knowledge of coping mechanisms, training & evacuation, and traditional shelter & housing. It shows that better-prepared communities with a disaster mitigation approach help reduce damage due to disasters.
4. Conclusion and Recommendation
The country is exposed to multiple hazards, such as tropical cyclones, floods, storm surges, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, and tsunamis. The country’s population is susceptible to the impact of these hazards due to a combination of high-hazard exposure coupled with social, economic, and physical vulnerabilities. Mitigation has been proven to be an effective and efficient approach to reducing or eliminating disaster risk. The impact of disaster is highly reduced through structural and non-structural mitigation approaches.
The government of Vanuatu has continuously made efforts at the national, provincial, and community levels to lessen the impact of disasters upon its people and assets through effective mitigation mechanisms. A robust non-structural mitigation mechanism is in place through necessary laws, legislation, strategies, and plans. However, implementing such a mechanism through structural mitigation is still a challenge. There appears to be a gap in operationalizing such measures. On the other hand, Vanuatu has its long practices of traditional body of knowledge mitigation and coping with disaster impacts. Appropriate procedures shall be in place to inform stakeholders of all of these measures and strengthen implementation. The risks posed by natural hazards can only be effectively reduced and managed by adopting a broader and more integrated approach to disaster risk reduction and management. It involves an appropriate disaster risk management strategy and reduction of vulnerability through appropriate mitigation and preparedness measures.
References
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[17] State Law Office, Meteorology, Geological Hazards and Climate Change Act. Vanuatu: Government of Vanuatu, 2016.
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[30] J. Handmer and H. Iveson, “Cyclone Pam in Vanuatu: learning from the low death toll,” Australian Institute for Disaster Resilience, 2017.
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